Two Interesting Elections

Back to politics, I guess.

The theme of this installation is "The tree of liberty is watered with the blood of constant revolution." Not bloody revolution anymore, but electoral revolution--parliaments in turmoil.

Canada: After the liberal parties finally got their act together and declared they were ready to form a coalition government and got ready to pass a vote of no confidence, PM Stephen Harper met with Governor-General Michaelle Jean, and asked for permission to shut down parliament.

This is a shockingly autocratic move--especially in light of the below 40% backing of his party. Also, it's a surprising reappearance of Canadian Colonialism; although we think of Canada as independent, this action means that for the first time in God knows how long, the representative of the Queen (Governor-General Jean) played a directly active role in the political structure of Canada.

This may be what it takes to get Canadians to throw off that last vestige of British Imperialism. But perhaps it may just wind up being paid with revenge against PM Harper and GG Jean. I don't know nearly enough about Canadian governmental structure to understand what the next step is--what happens when Parliament is shut down? Will it go to another election? If so, Harper's probably going to get a huge slap in the face. Is the Conservative Party going to back Harper on this ballsy move?

Imagine if President Bush could get permission to suspend Congress. I shudder to think what would happen.

Israel: A land I have direct experience with. The Labor Party, according to current polls, is set up to take about 10 seats in the 120 Knesset, meaning that they would officially be a fringe party (with less sway than any of the groups of extremist rabbis, for instance), meaning that with a brief interruption, Israel has returned to a basically two-party system, of centrists and right-wingers. Since Kadima is not very left at all, and Likud is pretty right wing, that means that the left has basically lost its voice in Israel.

This is bad news for the short term. Livni, who refused to buy Shas' support (a disproportionally important block of orthodox minsiters), will probably not be the next Prime Minister, and the rise of Netenyahu will almost certainly cancel out any new hopes in the region that Obama's election might bring.

The Changing Definition Of "Pro-American"

I was listening to Prime Minister's Question time, listening to Mr. Brown and Mr. Cameron compete for ownership over Obama's mantle. Of course, neither of them have it; Gordon Brown is connected to the liberal policies of Obama's positions, but the sentiment of change against an unresponsive government is easily picked up by David Cameron.

But that's not really the point, from my perspective (I'm not in England). I'm fascinated by the way the Obama election has completely changed the idea of "pro-American" and "anti-American." Was the break in sentiments toward America so transformed by Bush in 2000? Clinton in 1992? I think they were when Reagan succeeded Carter, but that's pre-history to me.

Sarkozy and Harper are two world leaders who spring to mind as having been labelled as "pro-American." Really, what it meant was that they're in favor of the neoconservative agenda. Will they continue to support America in the way they have, or will they be more connected to America's Republican Party?

Will anti-Americanism in the Middle East really be transformed? Within a few days of the election, the Shiite and Sunni blocks of the Iraqi Parliament were already progressing much faster in their negotiations with the Bush Administration over the political and military handover. Several cited the fact that although they distrust the Bush Administration, they have more confidence in an Obama Administration being fair to them.

Some places are less than enthused. Pakistan, for instance, which Obama said he would be willing to launch raids into (with clear intelligence and facing resistance from Pakistan), has reason to be less than enthused. Other countries who are feeling excited about Obama might slowly discover that Obama is not necessarily on their side.

Russia and China both took a full day to respond to Obama's win. They truly expected a McCain win, according to some, and don't know how to react. How will Prime Minister Putin relate to Obama? How will President Hu?

Syria voiced its praise for Barack Obama, and that it was looking forward to working with him. Tzipi Livni, Israel's foreign minister (who is looking to win in elections in February against hardliner Benjamin Netenyahu and labor party leader Ehud Barak--who may himself be replaced before February) warned Obama that speaking directly to Iran might be interpreted as "weakness" (I wonder if Tzipi Livni has ever met Rahm Emanuel?). It will be difficult to stay on Israel's side, in the coming years, but certainly other countries will be closer to us.

Change has arrived already.